For a while the Obama campaign team has been saying that Arizona is in play for them. I think some people have been thinking that this is a bit too optimistic, but, according to a recent poll, perhaps not.
A new Merrill/Morrison Institute poll indicates that Mitt Romney is barely leading President Obama in Arizona in a general election match up, 42% to 40%, with another 18% undecided.
The eventual outcome also may be dependent on whether former Surgeon General Richard Carmona can mount a vigorous campaign for retiring Sen. John Kyl’s seat, a campaign that would stimulate turnout in the Hispanic community. While I think if the election were held today Romney probably would win, it appears Obama can mount a competitive campaign in Arizona.
One of the more interesting things about elections is how turnout is effected either by the main event or even the undercard and what that can mean for the electoral chances of one or the other.
Sometimes a presidential candidate’s coattails can help congressional, senate or local race candidates. Sometimes the “lesser race” can have its own coattails, helping presidential candidates. Fascinating.
(Cross-posted at Lippmann’s Ghost.)